Previewing Florida’s 2018 Opponents: Game Three, Colorado State Rams

Both schools’ fans have been waiting for this game for a long time. Now that it’s almost here, though, it doesn’t feel quite how we thought it would. 

All time series: first meeting

Last meeting: first meeting

Synopsis: Colorado State, for those of you who don’t remember or choose not to remember, was where Florida imported its previous coach from. The Fort Collins, CO based school became locked in a stalemate with then-Florida AD Jeremy Foley over the specifics of said previous coach’s buyout, resulting in a compromise: the Rams would accept $2 million from UF to travel to Gainesville for a game in 2018. Now, the time for that game is nearing, and Florida couldn’t have possibly gotten to play it at a better time: the Rams are reeling with a coach who may have already reached his peak, while the Gators are reloading under a new, yet proven coach at the highest level. So this has all the makings of a good day in Gainesville for the home team. The question is whether Florida is capable of taking advantage of this or not.

Offensive breakdown: Don’t be fooled by Colorado State’s offensive numbers from a year ago. The Rams compiled those numbers by exploding against subpar teams, which counteracted the offense’s disappearance in big games. Nothing illustrated that more than a pair of losses in which the Rams managed thirteen points to a bad Wyoming team, and three points in a loss to a downright abysmal Colorado team.

Although the offense loses a ton of pieces from a year ago, the Rams do have some promise on this side of the ball. CSU landed KJ Carta-Samuels on the resale market, the brother of Vanderbilt QB Austyn Carta-Samuels and former Washington backup QB. Bobo somehow beat out Chip Kelly and UCLA for his services after he understandably failed to play behind UW starter Jake Browning, and with him eligible to play immediately, there shouldn’t be much of a drop off there. He has big shoes to fill in replacing the prolific Nick Stevens (8,550 yards through the air), but is a prototypical drop back passer that should fit Bobo’s offense well.

The running game is a bit more of a question mark, but there are still some solid pieces there. Rashaad Boddie and Isaiah (Izzy) Matthews figure to get the majority of the carries, a couple of 220 lb plus bulls in the backfield. Behind them, though, there’s the issue of depth. If either of them gets dinged up or overwhelmed by the midday September Florida sun, there aren’t many options to turn to. The good news is that while the offensive line does lose its best two starters, it brings back six different players who have started two or more games in the past. So while the Rams’ running game may not be explosive, it may be enough to keep opponents honest.

But it’s clear that Colorado State’s best offensive option is to pass. The Rams do lose Michael Gallup, but return Olabisi Johnson, Warren Jackson and tight end Cameron Butler. Colorado State wrung 1,031 yards of production out of those three through the air last year behind Gallup, and there’s hope that they can take the next step and become dependable playmakers this year. Behind them are inexperienced but talented youngsters Marcus Wilson and Trey Smith. So unlike the running game, CSU is not only promising at the top end of its pass-catching depth chart, but boasts a deeper corps of reliable contributors to it.

Offensive Grade: B-. As far as Mountain West teams go, the Rams could be an offensive juggernaut. I would not bet on this team torching Florida with the regularity that they lit up opponents last year and figure to again this year, but would be even more reluctant to bet on the Gators completely shutting them down.

Defensive breakdown: Here’s where the Rams have had and could very well continue to have problems. Bobo brought in former Tennessee DC John Jancek to help turn the unit around from last year, when it finished 96th nationally in pass defense and 86th against the run. Jancek has a history of being embarrassed by Florida, but he’ll be installing a 4-3 defensive scheme that better fits the Rams’ personnel. At least, that’s the hope.

The problem is, the Rams are assuming a lot to assume that so many new pieces can be thrust into the lineup and thrive. They’re putting a lot of stock into Arjay Jean and converted linebacker  Emmanuel Jones, two guys with high promise but limited experience, to hold down the end slots. The Rams will also need to see some major steps forward from interior linemen Richard King and Ellison Hubbard in order for the scheme to work.

But if the line can do its part, the 4-3 could be a tremendous success. Josh Watson returns to anchor the defense from his Mike (middle linebacker) position, and Ram coaches are extremely high on the futures of Max McDonald at the Will spot and Tre Thomas at the Sam role. Watson in particular seems to have an NFL future on the horizon, with a natural sense for the football and the ability to teleport himself into opposing backfields, so there’s hope that Colorado State will improve tremendously against the rush. (It can’t be much worse.)

The defense will hinge on the secondary. Gone are the Rams’ top three corners and free safety from a year ago, putting a ton of pressure on Braylin Scott, who missed the entire 2017 season due to legal issues. Beyond Scott, though, the depth chart drops off like a continental shelf at corner, a battle that may still be going on by the time the Rams’ plane lands in Gainesville. CSU looks to be better off at safety, with Utah transfer Jordan Fogal returning and Jamal Hicks back from a broken arm, but this unit as a whole has its work cut out for it in order to improve from the 242 yards per game through the air they gave up last year.

Defensive grade: C-. I hate to keep resorting to this, because I sound like a broken record after using this for each of the first two game previews, but there’s a reason Colorado State players play for Colorado State and not, you know, Florida. There are a few players to game plan around, like Fogal and Watson, but no team should be particularly frightened of this defense. And nobody less so than Florida.

Key matchup: QB play. Carta-Samuels for Colorado State has done nothing in his life that can possibly prepare him for the atmosphere and the opposing team speed he’s going to encounter in the Swamp. Inversely, Feleipe Franks has encountered both before while doing little to prove that he’s ready to succeed in such situations. Or maybe Emory Jones will get his Gator football baptism in this game? Either way, whichever side gets better quarterback play has a huge edge.

Florida key to victory: Establish the running game. Colorado State’s weakness is its defensive line, so advantage Florida offensive line. And though their linebacker corps are solid, they aren’t going to survive if Jordan Scarlett, LaMical Perine and Malik Davis take turns plowing through them all afternoon. As rare as this is, the Gators are deeper at running back than the Rams are at linebacker. If they exploit this, the Rams will wilt by the fourth quarter.

Colorado State key to victory: Win the QB play. That means both getting a strong game from Carta-Samuels and limiting whoever the Gators trot out there under center. Colorado State really isn’t likely to have any semblance of a prayer in this game without Carta-Samuels providing big plays, but if he does, and the Rams’ defense can complement that by forcing Franks and/or Jones and/or Kyle Track to struggle, they could make things interesting.

Fun fact: As alluded to in the opening paragraph, Florida paid Colorado State $2 million to come to Gainesville to play this game. But the transaction wasn’t nearly that direct. Florida wrung Jim McElwain away from CSU by agreeing to pay his $7 million buyout, but through a little fancy negotiating, Foley managed to whittle that number down to $5 million. The schools agreed that the remaining $2 million would be paid with a CSU visit to the Swamp for a single game. For those of you who don’t know, Florida typically pays its non conference opponents somewhere between $350K-$950K to come to the Swamp for a single game with no return date- presumably to take a beating.

Summary: Though technically not a directional school, Colorado State fits the profile of one as well as a school could. That’s not to say they can’t walk into the Swamp and scare the daylights out of Florida, and maybe even win if a few breaks go their way, but while they have some of the pieces needed in order to pull off this twilight heist, they don’t have all of them. And you can’t build a rocketship with just a gallon of fuel and a screwdriver.

That said, the Rams’ chances of orchestrating the shocker have much more to do with what Florida has than what Colorado State has. If Feleipe Franks throws three touchdown passes to the Rams’ defense the way he essentially did against FSU last year, all bets are off, particularly if Colorado State can build off that momentum and engineer some offense of its own. I don’t really think that’s going to happen, but that’s the one drawback to doing these previews in the middle of the summer: though we all have inklings and predictions, we don’t really know who will be taking the snaps by the third game of the season for Florida. And just because Franks has a history of self-destructing doesn’t mean that Jones or Trask won’t go through some growing pains and make some similarly bad decisions.

But that’s prepping for the worst case scenario, something that’s much more likely to happen in a team’s first game than its third. (And that’s why Florida typically schedules its easiest opponent first.) By no means should the Gators be expected to humiliate Colorado State. It’s possible, but the far more likely route this game takes is that the Rams put up a fight for a quarter or two before the Gators flex their muscle and the talent gap takes over. I see this game playing out in a vein similar to the 2015 East Carolina game: the visitors see a rare opportunity to win a game in one of college football’s most hallowed turfs, hang in there for awhile and go down swinging. The second and third to last words of that preceding sentence are what matter, though: the Rams will go down. CJ Henderson picks off a pass to preserve the lead late, and Tyrie Cleveland hauls in a touchdown pass in the waning moments to seal the deal.

Projection: Florida 34, Colorado State 23