(Photo credit: Florida Gators)
With the 2022 Florida Gators football season behind us (minus a bowl game), I figured it’s never too early to look ahead to 2023. Kickoff is only 276 days away! What should the expectations be in Year Two for Billy Napier?
(Note that we will publish more of these as we get closer to September 2nd.)
Game 1: @ Utah Utes
This will not be the same Utah team that gave Florida a battle in Gainesville this year. QB Cam Rising is gone. Both tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Brant Kuithe, are gone. Both running backs, Tavion Thomas and Micah Bernard, are gone. Still: it’s a road game about 80% of the way to the other corner of the country, and Kyle Whittingham’s team will come ready to play. Florida will almost certainly be the more talented team, but do not expect this to be easy by any means.
Florida’s chances to win: 69%
Game 2: McNeese Cowboys
Hello, payday game. Florida gets the benefit of a cupcake in week two, and win or lose against Utah, should relish the chance to get some young guys real playing time. McNeese was 4-7 in the Southland Conference in 2022 and is not a threat. I will never say give Florida a 100% chance to win a game after Georgia Southern in 2013, and after seeing Florida play down to its competition against USF and Vanderbilt in 2022, I’m a little hesitant of even toeing that line. But whiteout exists, so go ahead and sharpie in a victory here.
Florida’s chances to win: 98%
Game 3: Tennessee Volunteers
We call these “way too early” projections because it’s way too early to have any clue what Tennessee will be like in 2023. Is Joe Milton any good? Does Hendon Hooker come back and magically recover in time for this game in mid-September? Josh Heupel has a strong offensive system that has a certain floor, but the Gators have been running rings around the Vols in recruiting dating back to the Dan Mullen days. This is not a guaranteed win by any means given the litany of roster problems Florida has to address this offseason, but you have to figure the Vols will come back down to earth at least a little bit. At this way-too-early juncture, it’s a coin flip, and in the Swamp, I’ll say that coin comes up Florida.
Florida’s chances to win: 51%
Game 4: Charlotte 49ers
Hello, payday game number two! Charlotte’s fledging program is a perfect post-Tennessee game for the Florida Gators. They finished a paltry 3-9 in Conference USA and promise to be little better in 2023. Expect the backups and freshmen to play major minutes in this one in a Florida rout. The end of the synopsis from McNeese gets copied and pasted here- I’m not going 100% ever again, and 2022 has me a little leery of even going 99% until I see reason to do so. Charlotte recruits marginally better than McNeese, but still nowhere close to well enough to field a team that should compete with the Florida Gators.
Florida’s chances to win: 97%
Game 5: @ Kentucky Wildcats
It’s hard to imagine Florida losing three straight times to a Kentucky program they’d beaten 31 times in a row right before that. It’s also hard to imagine Mark Stoops wanting to stay in Lexington for too much longer, unless having lower expectations trumps all else. But as of now, I have to give my synopsis under the assumption that he’ll be back, although Will Levis and several pieces on defense won’t. I don’t expect Florida to take Kentucky lightly again, although Kentucky will get up for this game as they always will. Gators should be the slim favorites here.
Florida’s chances to win: 63%
Game 6: Vanderbilt Commodores
It’s hard not to respect the job Clark Lea has done at Vanderbilt, but there’s a pretty clearly defined floor there. Florida does have a history of messing around against the Commodores, though most of the worst examples of that are in Nashville. Still: the Florida Gators can expect a fight from Vandy, with or without Mike Wright at the controls, and this game can never again be written off as a certainty. But the talent disparity is just too wide for there to have reason to pick the Commodores in this one.
Florida’s chances to win: 95%
Game 7: @ South Carolina Gamecocks
If you ask Gamecock fans, Marcus Satterfield’s departure clears this team for takeoff. Spencer Rattler should be back, and in front of their home fans, you can expect South Carolina to play much more like the team that bludgeoned Tennessee and upset Clemson than the team that Florida disemboweled 38-6. But this is also the point in the season that you can expect the Florida Gators- specifically, whoever lines up at QB- to begin rounding into form. This is another coin flip game at this way-too-early juncture, and given that I gave Florida the nod in the first one (Tennessee) I’m giving the second coin flip to the other guys.
Florida’s chances to win: 49%
Game 8: vs. Georgia
I don’t think it’s possible for the talent gap in the Florida-Georgia game to be as wide as it has been in the past two seasons. Billy Napier is going to work trying to fix that while I type this. But it’s still way too early to expect Florida to be able to close that gap completely by next Halloween. Georgia will always be loaded in the trenches as long as Kirby Smart is there, and with O’Cyrus Torrence and possibly more linemen on both sides of the ball leaving, Florida will not be a physical match for Georgia for at least one more year. That’s not to say Florida has no chance, and I do expect a hard-fought game, but betting on the team that’s dominated on the recruiting trail is always the smart play.
Florida’s chances to win: 29%
Game 9: Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas took a step back in Year 3 of Sam Pittman’s tenure, but it’s clear that the Razorbacks are no longer the joke they were under Chad Morris in the late 2010’s. The problem for the Razorbacks is that for as embarrassingly atrocious as the Gators’ defense was in 2022- 102nd out of 131 FBS teams- Arkansas’s was actually somehow even worse, ranking 124th. That typically doesn’t get fixed in one season. The Hogs will get up for this game, but assuming Florida’s offense has found any sort of rhythm by this point in the season, this game shouldn’t be cause for concern.
Florida’s chances to win: 87%
Game 10: @ LSU Tigers
This is where the Florida Gators’ entire season could come off the rails. The schedule sets up nicely for Florida in year two in the sense that there is no brutal two-week stretch, but Florida also did not play a game in 2022 (other than Georgia) where the odds will be so heavily stacked against them as they will be in Death Valley. LSU having more talent is an issue that Billy Napier is trying to fix, but that still needs one more year after 2023 to take fruition. Florida will put up a fight, but after three straight years of Florida being a 7.5+ point favorite against LSU and losing all three times, I’m “Casey Ruling” this game- I will never pick Florida to beat LSU again until they actually do it.
Florida’s chances to win: 36%
Game 11: @ Missouri Tigers
A second road game in a row could be troublesome for the Florida Gators, especially in what could be a frozen tundra in central Missouri in late November. In a lot of ways, this game reeks of the circumstances of this year’s Vanderbilt game: a cold atmosphere in a road environment nowhere near Gainesville the week before FSU. The only difference is that nobody enjoys going to Missouri, so Florida won’t take over the stadium like they do in Nashville. As for the game? Florida’s got far more talent- Missouri is outside the top 30 of the 247Sports Composite rankings and will be lucky to finish with a top 50 recruiting class this year- but that weather just presents so many problems that it’s difficult to read this game with any real confidence.
Florida’s chances to win: 67%
Game 12: Florida State Seminoles
It’s time to start respecting what Mike Norvell is building in Tallahassee, at least to a certain baseline degree. He’s very clearly more of a threat than Willie Taggart, who by the way is so incompetent that even Florida Atlantic couldn’t put up with him for more than three seasons. But Norvell is on his third full recruiting cycle now (fourth if you count his transition class) and he has still yet to pull in a top-15 class (2023 class currently ranks 17th). That leaves the Seminoles with a pretty clearly defined ceiling. As for 2023, though? Barring a rash of early NFL Draft declarees, FSU should be a veteran bunch that could easily replicate its 9-3 record and be a tough out for most of its opposition. This game is in the Swamp, which helps immensely, but even penciling this in as a win is foolish.
Florida’s chances to win: 60%
Florida Gators’ projected win total: 8.01 games
To get Florida’s projected win total, add up all those percentages and then divide by 100. So: 69+98+51+97+63+95+49+29+87+36+67+60=801. Divide that by 100, and it’s 8.01.
This means that the Florida Gators’ projected win total is 8.01 wins and 3.99 losses.
Summary: 8-4 is the Florida Gators’ most likely record in 2022
With 8.01 being almost identical to the integer “8,” that’s by far the most likely number of wins Florida will get in 2023 according to these projections. Of course, that’s as of right now; as things change, the portal takes its course and we know more about both the Florida Gators and all their opponents, these will change quite a bit. In the meantime, all we can do is sit back and hope that the offseason is one that provides legitimate reason to alter these percentages in a way that’s favorable to the Gators.
