Tomorrow’s game against Arkansas is an absolute must-win for the Florida Gators- for a number of reasons. (Photo credit: Michelle Haas Hutchins, Associated Press)
With an article title like this, it’s likely that some fans will take it as fuel to spew hyperbolic nonsense. So because I want zero of that, let’s have the first paragraph address the obvious right off the bat: Billy Napier is in zero danger of being fired with a loss, and that’s how it should be. The term “must-win” doesn’t only come with the single most drastic consequence attached to it in the event of failure.
But while Napier is locked into the role of the Florida Gators head football coach for the long haul, tomorrow’s game against Arkansas is one that he absolutely has to win.
For starters, there’s the obvious short-term ramification. Florida sits at 5-3, needing to win just one of its final four games to reach bowl eligibility. No Gator fan would argue that simply reaching a bowl game is the ultimate goal, but the six-win barrier is one that Florida needs to clear more because of the devastating effects that failing to reach one would deploy. Not only would 5-7 be a clear step back from the 6-6 record a year ago, but Florida would lose out on 15 extra bowl practices that it could really use to get a jump-start on a critical 2024 season.
And Arkansas is not exactly a great team. Sure, five of their six losses have been by a single possession- which includes games against top-15 teams Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss- but the Razorbacks’ offense has struggled mightily all year. It reached a low point in their most recent game against Mississippi State, where the Hogs were kept out of the end zone and barely avoided a shutout in an ugly 7-3 loss at home.
As a result of that grotesque defeat to Mississippi State, Sam Pittman fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos, possibly in a last-ditch attempt to save his own job. As a program, Arkansas is reeling.
Pittman’s tenure started off strong, improving the Razorbacks from 1-11 the year before he arrived to 3-7 in a COVID-marred season and then going 9-4 in 2021. Things got a little rough in 2022, with Arkansas’ promising 3-0 start devolving into a 6-6 campaign. Somehow, the Hogs regrouped and recovered to beat a solid Kansas team in a thrilling Liberty Bowl to claim their second straight winning season.
But then things totally collapsed in 2023. A 2-0 start with wins over Western Carolina and Kent State was followed by six consecutive losses. Hog fans could pardon the losses to the juggernauts, like Alabama and LSU (and even Ole Miss) but there’s objectively no excuse for the Razorbacks to lose to an unranked BYU team at home and then suffer the ultimate ignobility of failing to reach the end zone against a bottom-tier Mississippi State team.
Nonetheless, even at 2-6, Arkansas is dangerous. Playing three top-15 teams to one-score games on the road proves what the Razorbacks can do when motivated by the idea of facing more prestigious programs, and as a brand-name program with a historic and hostile home venue, Florida fits that profile. So the Gators aren’t going to get this one easily.
And yet at the same time, this is the best chance Florida has to win a game the rest of the season. A road trip to LSU in what will almost surely be a night game feels like a definite loss. Florida could plausibly beat Missouri, but Eliah Drinkwitz’ offense can score points and Florida’s defense is getting worse by the week, so a loss feels like a 60/40 proposition at best and probably more like 70/30. To finish the season, Florida will return home to face an FSU team that will have the College Football Playoff on its mind; surely the Seminoles will be a solid favorite in that one.
And here’s where it’s instructive to bring back the big-picture outlook. If Florida loses this game to Arkansas and fails to steal one of its final three games to finish 5-7, the 2024 season opener against the Miami Hurricanes becomes an absolute make-or-break game. Lose that game, and start 2024 0-1 with road trips to Texas, Tennessee, Mississippi State and FSU as well as the neutral-site showdown with Georgia and home dates with ultra-talented LSU and Texas A&M teams, a Kentucky team that’s beaten Florida three times in a row, an Ole Miss team currently ranked in the top 10 of the CFP rankings, and a Central Florida team that’s going to make this game its Super Bowl… all lurking ahead… and things could spiral out of control for the Florida Gators program very, very quickly.
This is how slim a margin for error there is. We’re just talking about two inflection point games here– Arkansas tomorrow and Miami on August 31st. Sure, Florida could spring an upset and win a game or two they aren’t supposed to in exchange for losing a game they should win, but that simply is not a feasible path to count on for a football program that’s clearly in rebuilding mode.
As someone who writes about the Florida Gators as a media/fan hybrid, I really, really don’t want to see any of this happen. The fan part of me loves Napier as a human being, wants to see this likable human being succeed as a coach in his dream job, and wants to believe that the Florida Gators are finally headed in the direction of building a sturdy foundation that’s set up for long-term success- and is tired of being teased with flashes of success only to see the castle crumble shortly thereafter. The media part of me knows that firing coaches every three or four years is not conducive to bolstering a program’s prestige or its trophy case, and more importantly, does see signs of growth happening in 2023.
But if Florida loses this game to Arkansas, and then loses to Miami, the odds of Napier surviving in Gainesville in the long run decrease dramatically. Sure, blame the brutality of the schedule if you want, but the fact remains that you simply can’t coach the Florida Gators Football program to three losing seasons in a row- and if you lose these two inflection point games, that possibility is very much on the table.
Enough with the doomsday scenario, though. Let’s look at the upside that a win would bring.
Beyond the obvious bonus of 15 extra bowl practices- which incoming early signee DJ Lagway will be a part of- getting to 6-3 gives you a real opportunity to show improvement from the dreadful 6-6 record a year ago. Win tomorrow, and the Florida Gators will suddenly have three shots to win one game, which would put them at 7-5. Yes, going from 6-6 to 7-5 is a very small improvement, but it’s an improvement nonetheless, and it would give Napier some real data to work with on the recruiting trail about the future that he’s building towards.
With a win, Napier’s program would also would place itself one game away from an undefeated season at home. The Florida Gators’ road struggles have been well-documented, but they’re harder to take as seriously when Florida also struggles mightily at home- which they did a year ago with losses to unranked Kentucky and LSU teams as well as a near-calamity against South Florida that would have been the most embarrassing loss in program history (yes, worse than Georgia Southern; USF went a perfect 0-11 against FBS opponents last year). This year, on the other hand, Florida has won its first four home games, one of which came against a Tennessee team that’s currently sitting at #17 in the CFP rankings. And while the Charlotte performance was a bit underwhelming, it was still a two-touchdown win that was far less stressful than the USF nightmare a year ago.
Beat Arkansas tomorrow, and Florida sets itself up with a one-game season against FSU to wrap up a perfect year in the Swamp- which used to be something of the norm, but simply hasn’t happened much lately. Only twice since 2016 has Florida run the table at home, and just three times since 2012. The road issues are still concerning, but protecting their home turf over the course of an entire season would be a sizable step toward returning the Florida Gators to where they’re supposed to be. And while FSU is a very strong team that would probably smite Florida in Tallahassee, the Swamp has already helped Florida pull one upset this year, and that makes that bullet point look very realistic.
So that’s the story. The table is set. You can look at it either from the positive lens of the road ahead that’s set up if Florida wins, or the negative lens of the road ahead that’s set up if Florida loses, but no matter you choose to view this game, there’s one and only one conclusion that can reasonably be drawn about the importance of tomorrow’s battle of Hogtown. The Florida Gators simply have to win it.
