It’s a make-or-break year for Billy Napier at Florida– and he’ll be calling the plays once more. (Photo via AP)
A disappointing 2023 season for the Florida Gators has segued into a similarly disappointing offseason. And it’s inspired questions about just how things are going to go in Napier’s third– and if things don’t get markedly better, final– year.
Yes, Billy Napier has made changes, some of which are certainly needed. And he definitely does get credit for that. That said, Napier still left two staff positions untouched: the role of offensive line coach, and the role of offensive coordinator.
The latter role is one that’s touched off some debate between different factions of Gator fans. On one side, you have those fans who say that Billy Napier needs a play-caller for any of a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that it takes his focus away from too many other areas of the game that suffer as a result of him wearing too many hats. On the other side, you have those who believe that offense isn’t the Gators’ biggest problem, and that Napier’s time this offseason is better spent addressing those things that are bigger problems.
So let’s take a closer look at that. First, just how has the Florida offense performed with Billy Napier at the controls?
In 2022, with a top-five NFL Draft pick at QB, Florida finished #38 in the nation in total offense, and #7 in the SEC. The following season, in 2023, Florida finished #47 in total offense, and sixth in the SEC. Additionally, Florida’s offense ranked #51 in the FBS with 5.7 yards per play in 2023, a noteworthy step back from their 6.0 yards per play in 2022 (good for 29th in the FBS).
Those stats are not terrible, certainly. But not very good, either. You could do worse, but you could do better.
For starters, offense is part of the DNA of the Gator football program. Florida is known for its high-flying offensive juggernauts, from the Fun N’ Gun of the 90’s to the Tebow-Harvin spread machine a decade later. Even dating back to the 1980’s with Kerwin Bell and Ricky Nattiel, Florida was known for putting up points.
But, OK. That doesn’t address the topic of “there are much bigger issues at hand, offense isn’t what lost Florida games last year.” But on that topic: are we sure about that? Are we sure that the Gators’ offense didn’t lose Florida games in 2023?
However good or bad you personally believe those stats are, they lack proper context because they ignore the fact that as the CEO of the offense, Napier holds it back with terrible situational play-calls. For all its statistical success, Florida’s offense has developed a nasty habit of operating relatively smoothly for about 80-90% of a given game, but then suddenly turning the proverbial gun on itself and unloading the clip. The result is the offense does something to hurt the Gator football team– if not outright take the Gators out of the game. And it can take a variety of forms.
At times, it feels like Napier tries too hard to outcoach and outthink everyone– including himself. It’s almost like Napier gets bored of being conventional, and sticking with what logic tells him, so he decides to defy logic and create some fireworks. The problem is when you throw the fireworks into your own team’s path, it’s anything but helpful.
The slow-gestating Dante Zanders shovel pass on a fourth and three against an eight-man box for Utah– “Who’s the last guy Utah expects the ball to go to here? Zanders? Great. And they really won’t expect it after we take four seconds to set it up, right? Let’s do that!”– comes to mind. So does the double reverse pass against FSU that, in fairness, was set up well with a caravan of blockers around Eugene Wilson– but was also designed to make a pit stop right to the spot that the offensive line had just vacated, and where an army of Seminoles were swarming to unimpeded.
That makes two such examples of in-game malpractice against FSU in as many games for Napier, who in 2022 abandoned an effective ground game that had gashed the Noles for 131 yards in the first half, calling just one running play on the first three drives of the second half and going three and out each time. Somehow, during that halftime break in Tallahassee, Napier decided that since his ground game resulted in points, the passing game would too– despite the fact that Florida’s wide receiver room was reduced to Ricky Pearsall and the scout team. Making matters worse, he’d made almost that exact same mistake against Kentucky earlier in the year, albeit in not quite as glaring of a fashion.
Other times, Napier fails to grasp when the situation is deteriorating, and operate with increased urgency. Time and again throughout the Gators’ 14 losses under Napier, Florida’s offense would find itself down two or three scores in the fourth quarter, and carelessly mosey back to the line in between a bland diet of running plays and screen plays, letting tens of precious seconds melt away each time. No tempo, no two-minute drill, no urgency, and virtually no deep pass routes at all until it was too late for them to realistically help. Utah and Kentucky last year were the most notable examples of this, but go pick one of those 14 losses at random, and if you can find that full game on YouTube, you’ll see they didn’t exist in isolation.
Even when Florida isn’t in dire straits in a game, there are just some situations in which you have to sense blood, be aggressive, and go for the kill. When he’s held leads and had the ball in the second half, he seldom even tries, opting instead to curl into a shell and try to run out the duration of the clock. That’s not generally a good idea to begin with unless the game is so far out of reach that the opponent has pulled its starters, but it’s simply never a good idea when your defense is as bad as Florida’s has been the last two seasons. The Tennessee game last year, even in a game Florida won, is a pretty glaring example of that. So, too, are the back-to-back three-and-outs late in the third quarter against FSU last year when the Gators were clinging to a 15-14 lead… and ran five simple handoffs and one screen play that lost five yards.
And no, I’m not giving Napier credit for the rare attempt with that double reverse against FSU last year, because an attempt to deliver the fatal blow has to not be so hapazardly designed that it basically functions as your offensive line pulling off this century’s version of the Florida Flop. Had the play been schemed up with more thought so that it didn’t go right to where the defense was closing in, and, say, Wilson just dropped the uncontested pass or carelessly stepped out of bounds before or as he caught it, then there would be logical reason to credit Napier for making a well-thought-out attempt to land the knockout punch. But that’s not what happened. Napier outfoxed himself.
In other words, Napier suddenly becomes so cocksure and downright reckless in scenarios that don’t require it that he needlessly presses the self-destruct button, and becomes tepid and conservative in situations where Florida should be stepping on the gas.
To be fair, calling plays in college football is both an art and a science, and requires a high level of situational instinct. That means even the best offensive coordinators will make mistakes (by which I mean the risk/reward matrix of a play-call in a situation suggests a high risk and low reward, not because it wasn’t executed properly) from time to time. Not everybody is cut out for it.
But after two years at Florida, Napier has amassed a scary amount of evidence that he simply doesn’t grasp basic situational play-calling. And while, yes, the Gators’ offense has put up overall decent stats under Napier, those stats are more interesting than they are useful when they come in the same package as repeated and consistent failures to handle critical situations correctly, or at least the right plan of attack.
At this point, it’s become clear that Billy Napier is willing to sink or swim with his own play-calls. And to an extent, it makes sense. The argument goes, “If you know your job is in jeopardy heading into the season, why would you place your trust in the play-calling duties into the hands of somebody other than you?”
But that same logic can easily be reversed: if you know your job is in jeopardy heading into the season, why would you place your trust in the play-calling duties into the hands of anybody who isn’t the best at it? I’ll see the “why would you put your destiny in someone else’s hands?” argument and raise you the “why would you put your destiny in anything other than the best, most qualified hands?” argument.
So that’s the situation in Gainesville. Billy Napier is going to decide his own fate himself, and I truly wish him luck. I personally do like Napier, I like a lot of the talent he’s brought in, and I think with the right administrative attitude, he could recruit at an elite level for years to come. I also really don’t want to have to launch a fifth coaching search since 2011, which in turn risks losing a lot of that talent, and out of basic empathy for others, I’d prefer the Florida boosters not have to shell out $25.67 million for Napier’s buyout.
But again, none of that is up to me, or you reading this, or anybody other than Billy Napier himself. And I don’t think he’d want it any other way,
