The Florida Gators baseball team has already accomplished many feats this season. But this team is too talented to settle and celebrate for a trip to the Super Regional. No, this team knows they have unfinished business to cover.
After getting past a regional for the first time since 2018, the Gators stand two wins away from the College World Series. Standing in front of them in the Super Regionals is South Carolina, a team that embarrassed and swept them earlier this year in Columbia. But much has changed for both Florida and South Carolina since then.
South Carolina, like Florida, is a team with a powerful lineup, decent starting pitching, and a mediocre bullpen (perhaps a little weaker than Florida in that latter department). These two teams are very evenly matched in the starting pitching rotation, with the Gamecocks possibly having the slight edge (if either team does) and the Gators leading offensively. First, let’s start with some players to watch out for on both teams.
Florida offensive weapons to watch this weekend:
Jac Caglianone, Wyatt Langford, Josh Rivera, BT Riopelle, and Luke Heyman. The key here is Caglianone. He leads all college baseball players with 31 homers and seemed to rediscover that power late in the Regional stage after “slumping” a little in the games before. If he hits a couple of bombs this weekend, it’s very difficult to see Florida failing to return to Omaha.
South Carolina offensive weapons to watch this weekend
Ethan Petry, Cole Messina, Braylen Wimmer, Gavin Casas, and Will McGillis. Petry is clearly the most fearsome hitter in this Gamecock offense, but they’ll need more than one true problematic bat to get past the Gators. Look for Cole Messina and Braylen Wimmer to be those guys.
Florida pitchers to watch for
Brandon Sproat (SP) (UF), Hurston Waldrep (SP), Jac Caglianone (SP), Cade Fisher, Brandon Neely, and Ryan Slater. Florida’s top two in the rotation- Sproat and Waldrep- get all the ink, and Caglianone’s name is known for his hitting prowess and inconsistent pitching efforts. But Cags has done far more good than bad recently on the mound. And even if there’s trouble and one of the starters’ days ends prematurely- say, because of the atrocious weather that’s forecasted for Gainesville this weekend- Fisher, Slater, Neely, and even Philip Abner have done enough to merit some confidence in their abilities to keep the Carolina offense at bay.
South Carolina pitchers to watch for
Eli Jerzembeck, Noah Hall, James Hicks (SP), Jack Mahoney (SP), Eli Jones (SP), and Will Sanders. South Carolina certainly has very good pitching depth, but not great and definitely not elite. The horrible weather could play a factor here if a Carolina starter sees his day end after two innings and 30 pitches- who will step up from the Gamecocks’ pen? There are some talented arms in there, but there isn’t exactly a surplus of them- and if any of them don’t have their stuff when their number is called, South Carolina could be in serious trouble.
5 Florida Gators Keys to Victory
Get good outings from starters (6 IP, 3< ER). The weather is almost certainly going to play a role here, which would make this rather moot, but the goal has to be to limit the necessity for the bullpen as humanly possible. If by some miracle the weather holds up, keeping the relievers’ workload to a minimum- even for all they’ve improved this year- would be massive.
Get the bottom of the order on base. For Florida to really feel good about its chances, Cade Kurland and Michael Robertson need to break out of slumps, and Colby Halter will need to build off his two-hit game in the Regional final against Texas Tech. If these guys can turn the lineup over to the guys with the big bats and give them runners on base to work with, you have to think Florida’s odds go up significantly.
Run the bases better. Florida’s base running was- other than a 10/10 IQ play from Wyatt Langford to snatch an empty third base- mortifying this past weekend. Jac Caglianone forgot how many outs there were and sprinted to third base with only one out- and promptly got picked off for a double play. And Florida somehow ran itself into a double play with runners on second and third on a simple ground ball with both runners getting gunned down at home plate. That simply can’t happen this weekend.
Keep the big bats hot (Langford, Cags, Rivera). These three have been Florida’s most reliable hitters all year, and that has to continue this weekend. Especially because they’re all situated right in a row in the lineup, at 2-3-4. Simple as simple gets, Florida needs productivity from these guys to win the series.
Work Carolina starters’ pitch count. Even if the weather miraculously does hold up, Florida can get to the Gamecocks’ bullpen early by spoiling pitches and forcing their starters to really labor to get each out. That’s where the Gamecock pitching depth will truly be tested- and you have to favor Florida’s big bats to win that test.
Probable starters + Predictions
Game 1 – Friday at 6:00 pm – James Hicks vs. Brandon Sproat
Predictions: Ethan: South Carolina wins 6-4. Neil: South Carolina wins 7-3.
Game 2 – Saturday at 3:00 pm – Hurston Waldrep vs. Jack Mahoney
Ethan: Florida wins 5-3. Neil: Florida wins 6-5
Game 3 – Sunday TBD – Jac Caglianone vs. TBD
Ethan: Florida wins 8-6. Neil: Florida wins 13-7.
VERDICT: we each predict that the Florida Gators will get their revenge at home after previously getting swept in Carolina during the regular season.
