Billy Napier is hereby responsible for Arkansas’ first ever win in the Swamp, and now he has a lot of questions to answer. (Photo via Arkansas Razorbacks)
Milliseconds after Arkansas receiver Tyron Broden caught the game-winning touchdown pass from KJ Jefferson, things began happening in slow motion.
Former Florida-turned Arkansas offensive lineman Josh Braun ran toward the Florida fans in the end zone and mockingly executed three quick Gator chomps. Several of his teammates, all of whom rushed the field to join the celebration, joined him in chomping and taunting the Florida fans. Elsewhere, Sam Pittman was seemingly caught in between quick bouts of euphoria and relief as his mind likely bounced between realizations that his Razorbacks had finally pulled through and that he’d likely just saved his job.
All the while, Broden was smirking, slowly turning around to different sections and waving goodbye.
He may as well have been waving goodbye to Florida’s bowl hopes— and all the momentum the Gators had built after a 5-2 start, as the Gators now sit at 5-4 and figure to be massive underdogs in road trips to LSU and Missouri as well as their home finale against an FSU team that will be sniffing the College Football Playoffs. And if circumstances play themselves out in a certain way over the next thirteen months, he may have been waving goodbye to Billy Napier, too.
Arkansas grabbed a quick 14-0 lead within three minutes, held onto the lead for three quarters, and then came from behind to stun Florida in overtime, 39-36. It’s the Razorbacks’ first victory since a 28-6 win over Kent State on September 9th, their first SEC victory this year, and their first ever victory in the Swamp after losing in their first five trips. It’s also the latest, and perhaps most puzzling, loss for Billy Napier in a career that’s been filled with them, handing him an ugly black eye to go along with the all-black uniforms he had his Gators wear on Military Appreciation Day.
Even after Jaylon Braxton returned a Ricky Pearsall fumble for a touchdown to make it 14-0 for Arkansas three minutes into the game, it felt like the Gators would claw their way back. And to their credit, they did, tying the score at 14 apiece with a pair of Eugene Wilson touchdowns and then trading field goals until finally taking the lead late in the third quarter on a Ricky Pearsall touchdown.
But then Florida— much maligned for its various special teams breakdowns this season- committed another one. Unable to put the ball down for kicker Trey Smack, holder Jeremy Crawshaw took off on a desperate scramble attempt for two that never had a prayer. And by virtue of the Gators botching that ensuing extra point, which left the score at 23-20, the entire complexion of the game changed.
Arkansas’ ensuing field goal tied the game at 23, and after Smack connected on a field goal to make it 26-23, the subsequent Arkansas touchdown put the Hogs up four, not three, with 4:26 to go, meaning a Florida field goal would do no good. The Gators had to get into the end zone. Which they did, thanks to Trevor Etienne breaking loose for a long catch-and-run on a screen pass and then a 26 yard touchdown, but that still only put the Gators up three, not four. That meant when Florida’s defense forced a fourth and thirteen, the Razorbacks weren’t forced into a desperate situation to keep the game alive. Instead, thanks to Florida’s special teams miscue, Arkansas kicker Cam Little tied the game with a 49 yard field goal with just :44 remaining.
The Gators had a chance to win the game in regulation, but an even more astonishing special teams gaffe ruined any hopes of that.
After Mertz hit Arlis Boardingham for a 20 yard gain to the Arkansas 21 with the clock inside of ten seconds, Florida’s field goal team sprinted onto the field. There was only one problem. Florida’s offense was still on the field, preparing for the referee to spot the ball so they could clock it. That triggered an obvious illegal substitution penalty— the fourth such penalty on Florida’s special teams this year— and set the Gators’ field goal team back an extra five yards, making Trey Smack’s game-winning field goal attempt that much more difficult. Making matters worse, Smack— who had not actually done this all year— pulled 44-yard field goal wide right, setting up overtime.
For as astoundingly incompetent as the Gators’ special teams was against Arkansas— and really, has been all year— the Gators were actually bailed out by a technicality. Only because the clock was still stopped and had not restarted after the moving of the chains did the referee not enact a ten-second runoff that would have ended regulation. Had the ball been spotted and the clock been restarted at the time the infraction was flagged, the Gators’ special teams incompetence would have quite literally cost Billy Napier another game. Instead, Smack’s uncharacteristic miss from 44 was the catalyst for overtime, and while you can both call that a special teams miscue and can fairly blame Chris Couch’s special teams unit for making that field goal all the more difficult, Smack’s first actual, non-blocked miss of the year was simply him picking a bad time for a rare failure.
And we all know what happened in overtime: Florida’s drive went nowhere, and even after Arkansas was penalized ten yards for holding, KJ Jefferson truck-sticked Jordan Castell into Madison County on a 20 yard-run, Castell couldn’t quite bring Raheim Sanders to the ground on a Michael-Dyer-vs.-Oregon type of 11 yard run for a first down, and Jefferson found Broden for the win.
When the carnage was complete, Arkansas had hung 481 yards of total offense on Florida. Never mind the fact that linebacker Shemar James and defensive linemen Cam Jackson and Tyreak Sapp were out and that backup defensive lineman Jack Pyburn was injured during the game. Arkansas’ offense was so bad that Sam Pittman fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos after the Hogs’ most recent game, an ugly 7-3 loss to a mediocre Mississippi State team in Fayetteville, and appointed 32 year old receivers coach Kenny Guiton to run the offense in the interim.
That’s not to say that Austin Armstrong— whose stock is certainly cooling— should lose his job, nor is it to suggest that Napier is responsible for the injuries. It’s just another data point tacked on top of everything else— the special teams futility, the portal misses on the offensive line this past offseason, the repetitive in-game play-calling, the needless-yet-sadly-predictable wasting of two timeouts because Billy Napier couldn’t get the play in, which while we’re on the topic is a direct symptom of Napier’s refusal to hire a true offensive coordinator for 2023, and more generally, Napier’s refusal to make in-season adjustments and Florida’s related inability to play up to its potential on a consistent basis.
And thus, with that data point tacked on top of everything else, welcome to the “Let’s Talk About the Status of Billy Napier” discussion. The point in time to have that discussion has officially arrived.
It’s pointless to argue that Billy Napier should be fired for a number of reasons, not the least of which is an absolute cyanide pill of a buyout, but this was the kind of loss that can start to change a coach’s status. It’s one thing to get beaten down Georgia or even by Utah, but now, in exactly 1.75 seasons under Billy Napier, Florida has lost to Vanderbilt and Arkansas teams that, yes, were scrappy, but ultimately don’t recruit the same caliber of athlete, been embarrassed by a Kentucky program the Gators had just beaten 33 out of the last 34 times in back-to-back seasons, and needed a historically pitiful South Florida team that finished 0-11 against FBS teams to botch the hold on a field goal attempt just to avoid overtime. That is not exactly a set of results that inspires confidence in a coach.
Which begs a very obvious question. And it’s a question that I personally have been trying to avoid thinking about, but I can see now that I have no choice.
If the whole reason for patience with Billy Napier is that he’s going to upgrade the talent level on the Gators’ roster, that would imply that if he actually has a talent advantage over most schools not named Georgia and Alabama, he should be beating them consistently. Yet that simply isn’t the case. Through 1 and 3/4 seasons, the in-game coaching of Billy Napier and his staff has collectively been so bad that it’s costing Florida wins almost one in every three times the Gators step onto the field against an SEC team they’re more talented than. So, then, why should anybody realistically believe that an infusion of more talent is going to make any difference? If all Napier is going to do with that increased talent is waste timeouts because he can’t get the right play in, call predictable plays that the defense is gnashing its teeth waiting for, refuse to do something— at this point, literally anything— to prove that he cares the slightest bit about his special teams unit, what good does it even do him?
Obviously, it’s not really that simple. Years of bad recruiting from Dan Mullen, plus another one from Napier, on the offensive line, did a lot to diminish the Gators’ overall lopsided talent advantage over teams like Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Utah and Arkansas. Additionally, Billy Napier does have the chance this offseason to make a bevy of moves within his staff, two of which should be hiring a true offensive coordinator and a true special teams coach (which in turn will force the third move of doing something different than the two offensive line coach system), that should buy him at least another year of patience with the people who matter most. And I have it on good authority that staff shakeups are coming this winter.
But I also have it on good authority that the patience with Napier among the people who matter is substantially lower than it was 48 hours ago. And while that doesn’t mean Napier is in imminent danger of losing his job, it’s beyond obvious now to everybody else that he doesn’t have a choice. He simply has to course-correct, and oversee improvements in 2024.
If improvements don’t come, and quick, perhaps Tyron Broden really was waving goodbye to Napier— because with the teams not slated to meet next season, Arkansas won’t get to play against a Florida team coached by Billy Napier ever again.
