It’s a big one for Billy Napier and Florida, that’s for sure. (Photo credit: John Raoux, AP)
I’m not really sure how instructive it is to go in-depth about all that went wrong for the Florida Gators in their most recent game against Missouri, because at this point we all know what happened. Graham Mertz was injured amidst a heroic effort to pick up a first down, Max Brown did an admirable job filling in for him, and the offense as a whole did its job, but the defense wasted all of that by giving up a 4th and 17 to Luther Burden, and moments later Harrison Mevis kicked the game-winning field goal.
It was awful. It looked awful. It felt awful. And the effects of that loss aren’t going away.
It’s true. The Florida Gators were a double-digit underdog on the road against a top ten team. But there are two things wrong with presenting that statement and letting it linger there without context.
First of all, playing the “who was supposed to win?” game is already null and void this year because Florida has already lost a game it was supposed to win, against Arkansas. If you lose a game you’re supposed to win, you have to then make up for it by winning a game you’re not supposed to win. Otherwise, if you don’t have such a result to cancel it out, you officially underperform, and do worse than you’re expected to.
Second, that statement does nothing to address how the game itself actually went. Missouri did not look like the better team against Florida for most of the game. The two sides were very evenly matched as they went back and forth all night trading punches. And Florida had the game won by forcing a 4th and 17, a situation for which there is no good play-call. Brady Cook made the throw, and Luther Burden made the catch, but Missouri didn’t win the game; Florida lost it.
That’s part of a pattern now for the Florida Gators in Year 2 under Billy Napier. Florida is very much alive in most games, but opponents can rest assured that sooner or later, the Gators will do something to blow themselves up. They did against Utah (double jersey penalty leading to a Nate Johnson touchdown), they did against Kentucky (Dijon Johnson leaping penalty leading to a Ray Davis 75 yard touchdown), they did against Georgia (a blocked punt to cap a barrage of 26 straight points), they did against Arkansas (with not one but two critical special teams errors to take four points off the board), and, well, the defense never did do anything right against LSU after an early goal line stand, surrendering a school-record 701 yards to the Tigers in a 52-35 loss.
And as a result, Florida sits at 5-6. They’re in the exact same position they were in two years ago: beat FSU in Gainesville, and at least they’ll salvage a bowl trip from a largely disappointing season; lose to the Noles, though, and a bad season becomes a complete and monumental failure.
That Florida had a preseason win projection of 5.5 is immaterial. That Billy Napier is engineering a rebuild is irrelevant. Those excuses would be perfectly fine to justify going 7-5. Losing seasons in Gainesville are just not acceptable, and failure to make a bowl game at all is not something that Florida coaches typically survive unless the very next season shows worlds of improvement.
And on that note: it feels like every time the Florida Gators lose a game, the conversation automatically redirects right back to Napier’s job status. And to be completely fair, I do think that’s reasonable- after all, Florida fired Ron Zook for results that were better than this- but ultimately, that discussion gets rerouted right back to Napier’s massive buyout. So just in the name of clarity: Billy Napier’s seat is no hotter now than it was before the Missouri game, and it won’t be any hotter than it is now with a loss to FSU, either. Barring a massive implosion on the recruiting trail, his seat will remain at the exact temperature it’s at right now until August 31, when the Florida Gators welcome the Miami Hurricanes to the Swamp.
But for Napier, this game still has the ability to change fortunes.
A win over FSU would not undo the various letdowns that resulted in six Florida losses this year, but it would undo a fair amount of the damage done on fans’ patience meters. Sure, the angry and loudmouthed fans do not control a coach’s destiny, but the fans with money do- they’re called boosters- and staying on their good side is imperative to Billy Napier hanging around in Gainesville for the long haul. And yes, if you asked a majority of Florida boosters, I’d be willing to wager that they’d trade losses to Utah, Arkansas and Missouri for a single win over FSU that keeps the Seminoles from the College Football Playoff.
And similarly, a win over the Seminoles would do a lot to change how this team is remembered. Not just in the near future as Napier attempts to rebuild the program, but forever.
At 5-7, this season will be remembered as a terrible one. Statements like “they fought hard” and “at least the offense was good” just do not matter when it comes time to look back at prior seasons in discussions of Florida Gator football history. They may help us cope with the team’s struggles in the moment, but when it’s all said and done and the season is canon, the silver linings and meant-to-make-us-feel-better pieces of context aren’t worth much.
And if the Florida Gators do the unthinkable and pull off the upset over the Noles, it changes the narrative of the entire season. The 2023 team will go from being remembered as just a plain bad team to a disappointing team… but they beat FSU. And that last phrase, just by itself, has the power to sprinkle enough pretty rainbow powder over a dull and bleak setting to redefine the entire picture.
So, what’s going to happen? Can the Florida Gators save their season with a win over FSU in the battle of the backups? Can backup QB Max Brown etch his name in Gator lore with a win over Florida’s bitter rival? Can Florida’s defense, much maligned for not being able to do much of anything right in the final two-thirds of the year, keep FSU receiver Keon Coleman in check and harass FSU’s backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker after starter Jordan Travis was lost for the season?
We shall see. But for a team that’s 5-6, the stakes have never been higher.
And for a coach looking to ingratiate himself with the Florida Gators fanbase, that’s the exact setting in which he needs to win.
