With his recruiting class suddenly in jeopardy, Billy Napier finds himself in even more dire straits than he did a week ago. (Photo credit: Jesse Gann, Gainesville Sun)
Following the LSU loss, I wrote this piece detailing the then-current state of the Gator football program under Billy Napier. The idea was to present the data points behind the reasons for both hope and concern for the future of the Gator program, and it did, I think, paint a complete picture of how the Gators arrived at this current junction and what has to be done to ensure improvement.
Part of the reason for the optimism was that Billy Napier, who’s long been known as an excellent recruiter, had the promise of a top-three recruiting class waiting in the wings. The knock on his 2023 recruiting class was that while it did feature some impressive talent, it lacked depth and didn’t address the Gators’ major needs in the trenches. 2024, it seemed, was going to be an elite class that could go a long way towards correcting the on-field issues that stemmed from a lack of talent.
Fast forward just a few days later, and all of a sudden, that 2024 class that was supposed to close the talent gap on rivals Georgia and LSU is beginning to splinter. Yes, the top-of-the-top talent is still intact- most notably DJ Lagway and Xavier Filsaime, with additional underrated prospects like tight end Amir Jackson, wide receiver Jerrae Hawkins, and offensive lineman Fletcher Westphal also in the wings- but the deep foundation beneath them, previously thought to be rock solid, is crumbling.
Losing defensive end Jamonta Waller to Auburn was irritating, but it had been rumored to be happening for weeks. And Florida did have three other top-75 defensive linemen committed, so while Waller’s ability to wreak havoc off the edge would be missed, there was still some depth on that side of the line of scrimmage. Similarly, watching cornerback Wardell Mack flip to Texas- though somewhat surprising at the time- is annoying but not too damaging, as Florida already has one elite corner in Xavier Filsaime committed and is working hard on trying to snatch a second very good one in Zay Mincey. So while losing those two stung, it ultimately wasn’t the end of the world.
But now the Gators have lost a third four-star commit in Nasir Johnson, one of those other top-75 prospects on the defensive line, and appears to be in grave danger of losing a fourth blue-chip prospect in Amaris Williams. That would leave Florida’s once-loaded defensive line class with exactly one player left in LJ McCray. And while McCray is very talented and doesn’t seem to be wavering on his commitment (yet), losing three-quarters of what was supposed to be a program-defining haul on the defensive line is going to leave a gaping hole in what was supposed to be the strongest piece of armor supporting Napier’s future prospects at Florida: his recruiting class.
This isn’t to say that all is lost on the recruiting trail. Florida still has lots of irons in the fire for some of the top prospects on the board, namely Mincey and five-star offensive lineman Jordan Seaton, and could even pull a shocker by flipping someone like two-way athlete Jameer Grimsley from Alabama or corner Charles Lester from FSU. Maybe Billy Napier and Florida can rebound from watching the depth on their defensive line class get completely drained by flipping Dealyn Evans from Texas A&M, who just watched the Aggie coach he committed to get fired and was very high on Florida back in the summer- even while still committed to Texas A&M.
As we’ve all undoubtedly learned by now, nothing is done until prospects sign on the dotted line. And as we learned with Jaden Rashada and Chris Steele, sometimes not even then. So to be very clear, this is absolutely not a “the sky is falling” piece. Because it isn’t. At least, not yet.
But at this exact point, it’s also imperative to remember that everything is fluid in college football. And I do mean everything. Commitment statuses, NIL dealings, the temperature of coaches’ seats, all of it. It’s all subject to change so quickly and frequently. And that works both ways. NIL money could pour in overnight, resulting in a pair of five-star flips that nobody saw coming, and just as easily, the entire 2024 class could completely come off the rails within 24 hours of this piece being published. That’s just how it goes.
So let’s just make sure my viewpoint on this is clear. At this point in time, no, Billy Napier is not in serious jeopardy of losing his job before the next time his head hits the pillow in his bed. Lose Amaris Williams, though, and then lose just one more top prospect that everybody believes to be locked in- let’s say, strictly for argument’s sake, four-star legacy linebacker Myles Graham- and then fail to replenish those losses with eleventh-hour blue-chip recruiting victories, and this elite class that was supposed to be Napier’s one saving grace gets downgraded from elite to just plain good. (Again, just to be very clear, I am not predicting a Myles Graham flip, but simply using his name to illustrate a hypothetical situation.)
And that wasn’t part of the deal. Florida fans and boosters didn’t sign up for another class with a label of, “Yeah, there’s some nice talent there, but just not enough of it” like Napier’s transition class of 2023. A recruiting class that’s just plain good simply isn’t good enough; Florida fans found that out pretty quickly as the Dan Mullen era crumbled to pieces. This 2023 season, which seems destined for a 5-7 finish, is actually worse than Napier’s first season, in which Florida went 6-6. Going 5-7 would be the opposite of progress, and it’s not exactly a data point that leaves fans and boosters- who collectively I’ll refer to as “investors” in the program- really comfortable about the direction of the program. To offset that negative momentum, the investors were promised, Billy Napier would bring in an elite class that could provide some reason to believe in the future. A top-five recruiting class, to be more specific. Maybe even a top-three class.
To reiterate, there’s still time for Billy Napier to repair the damage to this recruiting class’s infrastructure, and I make that statement assuming that Amaris Williams bails. The repair job starts after that. And to reiterate another point, there are still plenty of big-time prospects left on the board, including at the obvious positions of need on the offensive (Seaton) and defensive (Evans) sides of the trenches. But if Napier’s investors feel victimized by a bait-and-switch, featuring a recruiting class that’s several steps down from what they thought it was going to be, they’re likely to be far less forgiving and patient with less-than-desirable on-field results in 2024. And that is where the term “hot seat” comes up. Because while Napier may not be on the hot seat now, thinking that it’s guaranteed to stay that way is very short-sighted.
If this class continues hemorrhaging top talent and falls out of the top ten of the recruiting rankings as a result, and Billy Napier then goes and loses the 2024 season opener to the Miami Hurricanes? Boy, oh boy, would that seat be hot beneath Napier’s trousers. And while that’s clearly a doomsday scenario, it’s also worth pointing out that the Gators aren’t that many variables away from that happening. Losing Williams is likely, so that’s one. Now pick just one more currently committed player that nobody thinks is a danger to depart, which, yes, would be a surprise- but remember that nobody thought Williams, Johnson, Mack, or Waller were going to flip when they committed, either. That’s two. And now think about if Florida loses a football game on August 31 to a rival. That’s three- the first one of which is said to be imminent. Three variables breaking the wrong way between now and September 1, 2024, and Billy Napier is all but cooked.
It’s worth pointing out that at this juncture, the general opinion from the people I speak to are willing to give Napier not just the 2024 season but 2025 as well, as they want to see a full season with DJ Lagway at the controls. That, though, is a sentiment that was not factoring in a complete and utter collapse on the recruiting trail- and if the cracks that have begun popping up in this class lead to the entire thing shattering, and then losses on the field keep piling up on top of that, it might not be Napier who’s tasked with picking up those shattered pieces. So those variables may not have fallen the wrong way yet, but thinking it’s a sure bet that they won’t is less than wise. Such is the fluidity of college football.
And this is where it’s once again instructive to reiterate another frightening thought. The vision being sold to Napier’s investors is that the reason Florida isn’t winning is because of a lack of talent, and conversely, when Florida accrues that talent, they’ll be able to win more games. But under Billy Napier, Florida isn’t even able to take care of the teams with significantly less talent. The Gators lost to Vanderbilt in 2022, Arkansas in the Swamp in 2023, and were manhandled by Kentucky in each of the last two seasons. Pound for pound, Florida already had significantly more talent than each of those teams, yet they couldn’t beat them. So now the question becomes, even if Billy Napier does overhaul the talent level of this Florida roster, how can his investors really feel good about that making a difference on the field?
Changes do seem to be coming this offseason, most notably the hiring of an offensive coordinator (no, that’s not the most pressing issue this team has, but as my good friend Ali Peek points out, it’s definitely an issue.). And Florida does figure to produce a better team on the field next year. Again, I don’t want to imply that it’s all over for Napier, or that he’s a dead man walking and it’s a matter of when, not if, the guillotine drops. It’s just not true.
But it’s also not true that Napier is completely safe beyond next autumn, not with losses piling up like autumn leaves and especially not with his ace in the hole of a recruiting class quickly losing its steam. Boosters are people too, and they get irritated by losses just like the rest of us. And that irritation is only heightened when they’re asked to cut check after check, fund resource after resource, and hand over crutch after crutch for this limping football program and don’t see results. So don’t be fooled by any public votes of confidence you may see; Billy Napier may be safe for now, but if he can’t rebuild this recruiting class back up to the “elite” tier and then stack up a pair of of wins against Miami and Samford for a quick 2-0 start in 2024, that could change very, very fast.
I really hope it doesn’t. I do still see some of the things in Billy Napier that made him my first choice to replace Dan Mullen two years ago. As I said to conclude the first piece I wrote this week, I truly hope he can figure things out.
It’s just that the evidence to honestly believe that he will is dwindling by the week- and now, even by the day.
