Two short weeks ago, the Florida Gators had everything in front of them. Sure, Florida’s performance against Charlotte left a lot to be desired, but it was just an emotional hangover after convincingly defeating Tennessee in the Swamp. This was the year to beat Kentucky, to return that series to normal, and prove that Florida was ahead of schedule under Billy Napier.
One 33-14 blowout loss to Kentucky later, and the season outlook has flipped on its head. Now, after getting so completely and thoroughly dominated by Kentucky, the Florida Gators need to focus on simply making it to a bowl game.
That’s right, the Florida Gators suddenly find themselves in an extremely precarious position heading into their Homecoming showdown against Vanderbilt. Yes, a win would put Florida at 4-2, with only two more wins in the six remaining games needed to clinch bowl eligibility. But the back half of the slate is far more rigorous than the front half: road trips to South Carolina, LSU and Missouri lurk, along with the yearly showdown in Jacksonville against what’s guaranteed to be a top-five Georgia team and a finale against another CFP contender in FSU.
Of those six remaining games, only Arkansas seems to be a “should-win” game for Florida, and after watching Arkansas fight LSU for four quarters in Death Valley, even that’s no guarantee. Florida would then have to either shock FSU to close the season or pick off one the four remaining games outside the friendly confines of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. And even asking for a single, stray win outside the Swamp might be asking for a lot.
Florida is, after all, a paltry 1-9 away from the Swamp under Billy Napier. In fact, Florida as a program is a miserable 1-15 away from Gainesville since beating up on a completely overmatched USF team in Tampa in 2021. You read that right: since beating USF 42-20 On September 11, 2021, Florida has won just one of its last sixteen games played in stadiums other than Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
With mortifying stats like that, it’s understandable why the importance of Saturday’s home game is magnified. Florida simply can’t be trusted in any other stadium. What’s more, Vanderbilt is Florida’s last chance to work on anything they might want to improve on against live competition, because there are no more cupcakes baked into the schedule. Of Florida’s six remaining opponents, five are in the top 25 of the 247Sports talent composite rankings that judge the pure talent on each team.
So this is it. If the Florida Gators want to make a bowl game, they need this game on Saturday against Vandy. Nowhere else on the schedule is there a game that’s as likely to be a victory as this one. No opposing offensive line is as weak, no opposing front seven is as passive, and no opposing offense is less threatening.
Here’s hoping Florida takes care of business, and sets up a realistic path to a bowl game this year- because the difficult reality is, that’s where this program is right now.
