The Gators’ 2024 football schedule was released a month ago, and with the offseason now in full swing, let’s turn our attention ahead to that 2024 slate- one which will almost certainly make or break Billy Napier’s tenure at Florida.
Which games should Florida win? Which games are tossups? Which games will be difficult, but could turn Napier’s fate around if they go his way?
Game 1, 8/31
Miami Hurricanes
The skinny: if you want to talk about a single game that the Florida Gators absolutely have to win to justify Billy Napier returning in 2025, this is it. The Canes weren’t bad on the stat sheet in 2023, finishing #26 in both total offense and total defense, although A) that was in the talent-void ACC and B) an uncanny ability to lose games doomed them to a 7-5 record in Mario Cristobal’s second season. They’ll have former Washington State QB Cam Ward at the controls in 2024, who will be making his first start on his new team inside what figures to be a raucous Swamp. That’s advantage Florida, which for all its question marks, will have a constant in QB Graham Mertz and a good amount of young talent at the skill positions. Make no mistake: while it’s not a guarantee by any means, this is a game the Florida Gators had better win. Lose this one, and things could unravel very, very quickly- both for Napier and the man who hired him, AD Scott Stricklin.
Percent chance Florida wins: 81%
Game 2, 9/7
Samford Bulldogs
The one and only soft landing spot on the schedule for Florida in 2024 comes at a good time. If the unthinkable happens and the Gators lose to Miami, Florida could use this as a rebound game to gear up for Napier’s last stand with the gauntlet that lies ahead. Beat Miami, and all of a sudden, you have a real chance to start your hellacious schedule with a 2-0 record. Samford was a very mediocre 7-5 in 2023, and their senior QB Michael Hiers will need to be replaced. No further analysis should really be required, as even Florida’s imploding 2021 squad beat Samford by three touchdowns mid-nosedive, and Samford hasn’t exactly upgraded its talent since then. If the final score of this one is any closer than that, it does not bode well for the current staff.
Percent chance Florida wins: 99%
Game 3, 9/14
Texas A&M Aggies
Coming off what should be an easy win over Samford, the Florida Gators officially get down to business against Texas A&M. It’ll be the Aggies’ first road trip under new head coach Mike Elko and a new quarterback. The Aggies’ roster figures to turn over even more than Florida’s this offseason, and while Texas A&M promises to have plenty of talent– some of which they impounded from Gainesville– it’s just not a sure thing that all that talent can cohesively come together in time for this game in the middle of September. If this game were in November, or even right at the midway point of the season, I’d probably like the Aggies’ chances a bit more. But at this way-too-early stage, eight months before kickoff, logic and objective reasoning says to bet on the team with the returning QB on its home field.
Percent chance Florida wins: 67%
Game 4, 9/21
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs
This one is… tricky. It’s a shame that we’ll never know what Mike Leach was truly capable of in Starkville, but MSU decided that Zach Aren’t wasn’t up to snuff and thus turned control of the program over to Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby. And Lebby has a lot of work to do. A new quarterback is needed after Will Rogers departed for the transfer portal, and the MSU defense will require some retooling with over half of their starting lineup expected to move on. There aren’t a lot of constants on Florida’s 2024 team that one could point to, but a returning QB and star linebacker in Shemar James automatically gives Florida more stability than Mississippi State. Plus, Napier has proven that he’s good for exactly one road win per season, and this is probably it.
Percent chance Florida wins: 76%
Game 5, 10/5
Central Florida Knights
The very fact that calling this school “Central Florida” when their fans demand you call them “UCF,” along with the fact that they get angry if you dare not comply, should tell you everything there is to know about this game. But even if you throw out the pettiness, it’s another one of those games that Billy Napier has to win if he wants to survive. I’m not sure Napier grasps the very notion of desperation, but still; his team has an enormous natural talent advantage over this Central Florida team that went 6-6 in its maiden voyage in the Big 12; it promises to be little better in 2024. I know Napier has his problems as an in-game coach, but you have to bet on the home team to put up points in bunches over the 85th ranked defense in the FBS in 2023 and figures to be, at best, only slightly improved in 2024. Lose this game, even if Florida sits 4-0 coming into it, and Napier is in a world of trouble given the seven games that lay ahead.
Percent chance Florida wins: 89%
Game 6, 10/12
@ Tennessee Volunteers
From the school that used to employ AD Danny White and head football coach Josh Heupel, we now turn to the school that currently employs them. Tennessee is going to have problems in 2024 simply because so much of their 2023 team is departing at once- including three starters on the offensive line- but Heupel knows how to dump points on you in batches with his easy-to-run, hard-to-defend offensive system. Also, Nico Iamaleava is probably an upgrade over Joe Milton, so the Gator defense better be ready. It’s also possible that the Vols are reeling at this point in the season, with a neutral site game against NC State and road trips to Oklahoma and Arkansas leering at them before this game- and oh, by the way, Alabama awaits the Vols the week after this one. So Tennessee needs this game, and they need it badly. And Heupel, unlike Napier, is one to understand the concept of urgency. They’ll most likely figure something out against the Florida Gators, who will have to play their very best to even have a chance in this one.
Percent chance Florida wins: 29%
Game 7, 10/19
Kentucky Wildcats
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but: is this the year Florida finally beats Kentucky? Oh, if only my 2010 self could hear me now. Anyway: it’s beyond obvious at this point that you can change the nameplates on the backs of the 18-22 year old kids playing for Kentucky all you want, but the fight that the Wildcats will bring against the Gators will not. Florida is going to have to finally treat Kentucky like Georgia, and part of that means waking up and playing big boy football in the trenches. I haven’t seen Billy Napier address that need on the offensive line yet this cycle beyond Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson, although Florida’s defensive line could take a big step forward in 2024 if everyone stays healthy- and that may just be enough to squeak this one out. Or maybe the same players on the offensive line will simply play with more anger and fire this time? Call it a coin flip, with the slight nod going to Florida because it’s going to be played in the Swamp.
Percent chance Florida wins: 52%
Game 8, 11/2
vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Welcome to the single most hellacious month of Gator football in recent memory. I do believe Florida has closed the talent gap on Georgia somewhat with this 2024 class- which, even with the losses of Wardell Mack, Nasir Johnson, Xavier Filsaime and Amaris Williams, still has one of the highest average player ratings in the country. So that’s good. Still: it doesn’t close that talent gap by nearly enough, and what’s worse, Florida does not appear interested in orchestrating the complete overhaul of its offensive line that it needs to this offseason. And that really doesn’t bode well for what happens in Jacksonville. As we saw each of the last three years, Georgia can take a nap for about a quarter and still pound Florida by three touchdowns, and there simply isn’t any concrete evidence to point to that tells me this outcome is likely to change in 2024. Oh, and Carson Beck will be back after breaking onto the scene with a strong 2023 campaign. Just be sure to enjoy the pageantry of Jacksonville while you still can, because this game isn’t going to be pretty.
Percent chance Florida wins: 11%
Game 9, 11/9
@ Texas Longhorns
A brutal five-week stretch to close the season continues in Austin, Texas, where the Gators will lock horns (pun semi-intended) with the Texas Longhorns for the first time since 1940. Sounds fun, right? Texas’s offensive line– which wasn’t bad to begin with in 2023– figures to be even better next year with four of five starters set to return, and while receivers Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy are gone, there’s plenty of young talent waiting in the wings. This is also the point in the year where you have to start factoring in the status of Billy Napier as Florida’s head coach. Is he fired by now? Is he a lame duck? Is he in jeopardy of these things happening with the next loss? And if so- does the team fight like hell for him, or do they just pack it in? With so much unknown at this admittedly way-too-early stage, one thing that’s for sure is that Texas will be the more talented team. Between that and the fact that they’re playing at home, a Florida victory seems highly unlikely.
Percent chance Florida wins: 24%
Game 10, 11/16
Louisiana State Tigers
The Casey Rule- named after my dear friend Casey Hampton- states that if you lose to a team A) five straight times, OR B) three straight times as a favorite of more than a touchdown (i.e. you’re favored by 7.5 points or more), you don’t pick Florida to beat that team again until they actually do it. Well, now both of those triggers are in effect here, as LSU has beaten Florida five in a row- and in 2020 (24.5), 2021 (14.5) and 2022 (7.5), Florida was favored by more than a touchdown. So LSU clearly has something working against Florida. A sizable natural talent advantage is certainly part of it, and while the Bayou Bengals will lose Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier won’t be able to replace his devastating effect on the ground, there’s still so much speed and strength in Baton Rouge that it’s hard to see Florida pulling this one out- even in the Swamp. Watch for the recruiting loss of portal receiver CJ Daniels to haunt the Gators in yet another frustrating loss.
Percent chance Florida wins: 35%
Game 11, 11/23
Mississippi Rebels
For the first time he falsely accused then-Florida coach Urban Meyer of cheating, Lane Kiffin will return to the Swamp, this time as the head coach of Ole Miss. Among the multitude of interesting storylines here is that if a large sum of Gator fans got their way, this would be a game that pits the current Florida Gators coach against the next Florida Gators coach. (No, it’s not happening.) The fact that Ole Miss gets one more year out of Jaxson Dart could go a long way toward deciding this game, as could all the other late-season unknowns of injuries, coach status, and possible SEC and CFP implications. The Rebels’ defense was almost as bad as Florida’s this year, but Kiffin did load up on the defensive side of the ball through the transfer portal, landing former Florida defensive lineman Princely Umanmielen and former Texas A&M defensive lineman Walter Nolen. Particularly if the first three games in November go as badly as I think they could, Florida will need this one- and I do think they’ll play like it. Mark this down as another tossup to go along with Kentucky, but with the edge going to the Rebels by virtue of Kiffin coaching circles around Napier.
Percent chance Florida wins: 48%
Game 12, 11/30
@ Florida State Seminoles
There’s no objective way to think that FSU won’t take a step back in 2024, as it feels like the Seminoles pushed all their chips in for 2023. With their entire offense– Jordan Travis, Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Trey Benson– all gone, plus terrifying defensive end Jared Verse, the Noles will have to start all over again in terms of building a contender. However, unlike Billy Napier, Mike Norvell has proved adept at working the transfer portal, so reloading for another great season in 2024 isn’t out of the realm of possibility. And you could certainly ddo worse than former Clemson and Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei and former Alabama running back Roydell Williams in terms of replacements. It’s a rivalry game, which means that even if there are no other emotional components to this game- like, say, the future of Billy Napier- the Florida Gators will have a puncher’s chance. But given that Napier is a paltry 1-7 against his rivals two seasons into his tenure and 2-10 outside the Swamp, this one probably isn’t worth getting your hopes up for.
Percent chance Florida wins: 38%
