One of the more shocking decommitments in recent history took place this past week, as four-star offensive lineman Peyton Joseph backed off his Florida pledge and re-opened his commitment.
Of course, the shock triggered exactly the type of responses that you’d expect. Anger, outrage, and disappointment quickly reverberated across social media. Because it was rather surprising: Joseph had just committed to Florida two months ago, and seemed to be solidly sticking with it.
Until, well, he wasn’t.
Now, the tea leaves are starting to read FSU, as the Georgia prospect decommitted fresh off a visit to Tallahassee. Which only serves to make the loss sting worse.
But that’s the question. How much does this actually hurt?
On the surface, it’s indeed a terrible look. A four-star prospect with a laundry list of offers and a consensus top-ten interior offensive lineman decommitting looks awful, especially given the problems Florida has had on its offensive line under Billy Napier. It looks even worse with his apparent lean toward an arch-rival, and if he does indeed choose the Seminoles, it will be yet another consequence of Billy Napier losing games on the field.
Making matters worse still, Joseph had been recruiting his teammate, four-star QB Antwaan Hill, and fellow Georgia prospect Isaiah Gibson, a four-star defensive end. So effectively, that’s not one, not two, but three separate prospects of four-star caliber that the Gators just lost out on.
But, about that. In the age of the transfer portal and NIL, there’s not really a way to measure how much any decommitment hurts– especially in April. Even watching the door close on three separate four-star prospects is no big deal. You can simply go land some other ones.
And indeed, Florida is looking to do just that. The Gators are in hot pursuit of Solomon Thomas, a current FSU commit who every ranking system says is better than Peyton Joseph. If Napier can pull that off, nobody is going to care about or even remember Joseph’s brief commitment.
Yes, Joseph plays on the inside and Thomas is a tackle, but that’s the other thing at play here. Florida can simply go fill its needs in the portal now. Everyone can. There’s no telling how good or bad Joseph will eventually be, but he wouldn’t be on campus before 2025 anyway– and for him to be of value in 2025, he’d have to hit the ground running as a true freshman. Which simply doesn’t happen very often for offensive linemen in the SEC.
Of course, there’s a caveat to all this. Florida has to, you know, land their top targets in the transfer portal. To say that the loss of Peyton Joseph is no big deal is only true as long as the Gators do something about their need for an interior offensive linemen. If Florida is forced to hit the portal with extra veracity for guards and centers, and Napier finds another O’Cyrus Torrence to rent for a year, the Gators will have actually benefitted from the loss of Peyton Joseph. If Napier & Co. never do land another interior lineman of comparable value, then it was indeed a massive loss.
But that’s just it. It’s April of 2024 in the 2025 cycle. We’re a year and a half away from Peyton Joseph– or anybody the Gators may take in his place– ever having a chance to step on the field. Billy Napier has time to win some other recruits’ trust, win some games on the field, and then win some battles.
So I guess the question really should be: can Billy Napier do that?
As is the case with most things, we’re just going to have to wait and see.
