I think I’ll allow the lede for our week five picks to be done by fellow game picker NWB:
“Look- Neil Shulman has the early lead, but in a handful of his wins, I’ve won against the spread (Florida-Kentucky; UCLA-A & M, Iowa-Penn State) but he’s won due to the contest being “straight up.” Okay, okay, I’m reaching. Basically I’m getting clobbered. But there’s a lot of college football left.”
Yep. Basically. I own a six game lead over NWB with two whole months plus bowl season still left.
Onto week five!!
Miami @ Duke
NWB: Miami (FL) 31, Duke 23- Athletes vs. Cutcliffe used to be an upset special. Now it is one of the better road game coaches in the history of our sport, Mark Richt, with superior talent. Canes head into FSU week without a L.
NS: Duke 27, Miami 24- Here’s where having a six game lead in the picks comes into play: I can take chances like this. My first major upset pick of the season comes with a modestly talented but well coached Duke team at home over an extremely inconsistent Miami team. Dukies win on a late field goal.
Florida State @ Wake Forest
NWB: FSU 14, Wake Forest 12- Hey, it’s Shulman’s website, so we have to pick a game between the fourth best team in the state of Florida and the third best team in the state of North Carolina. Noles defense stands tall.
NS: FSU 35, Wake Forest 10- The guy above me wanted to pick a C-USA game over this one. Come on. Besides, how hysterical would it be if FSU started 0-3 in a season they began ranked #3? It won’t happen, though. The Seminoles bounce back and cruise at Wake.
USC @ Washington State
NWB: USC 33, Washington State 28- I’m going to regret going favorite here, aren’t I? Luke Falk is having the year most expected from Sam Darnold. The Cougs are playing good defense, by Mike Leach standards (30th in S & P+ efficiency) and are at home in one of college football’s coolest environments. It will be a great game USC wins late because an athlete makes a play.
NS: Washington State 41, USC 31- USC may still wind up being a CFP team if they run the table from here on out, but road games on Thursday/Friday nights have not historically been very kind to them. Another upset win for the home team as Luke Falk outdoes Sam Darnold.
Iowa @ Michigan State
NWB: Iowa 21, Michigan State 17- Nate Stanley and Akrum Wadley give the Hawkeyes the balance they’ll need to hold off a Michigan State team that struggled last week against Notre Dame’s play-action running attack.
NS: Iowa 28, Michigan State 23- The Hawkeyes showed a ton of resilience last week against Penn State, and may be a dark horse candidate to snatch a NY6 Bowl berth. MSU, meanwhile, is still reeling from getting trounced by Notre Dame at home, and their home field won’t help them much more in this one.
Clemson @ Virginia Tech
NWB: Clemson 27, Virginia Tech 17- Justin Fuente’s squad is putting up over 500 yards a game in total offense in September, but they’ve done so against the worst teams in America on that side of the ball (best defense faced 107th). They play the best defense in America Saturday and that battle-tested group takes the crowd out early and wins handily.
NS: Clemson 41, Virginia Tech 20- VT could be for real this season, and this could be a mere prologue to the ACC Championship Game. But Kelly Bryant poses a threat that not even Will Grier did, and the Hokies won’t have answers.
SEC Games:
New Mexico State @ Arkansas
NWB: Arkansas 41, New Mexico State 24- Aggies aren’t as terrible as y’all think, and were in the ball game against Arizona State in their season opener. Arkansas isn’t a Bret Bielema team. They pass too much, are weak up front and don’t tackle well. That’s weird because they are coached by Bret Bielema.
NS: Arkansas 45, NM State 24- This is the kind of game I wouldn’t take a chance on with a six hundred game lead, let alone six. Arkansas uses the momentum they built last week and rolls at home.
Vanderbilt @ Florida
NWB: Florida 19, Vanderbilt 14- Plenty of folks in the media picking the Commordores, and not just against a too large ten point spread. Part of me thinks (wants?) Florida finally puts a complete game together. But that seems to happen so rarely against Vanderbilt, and I think Kyle Shurmer limits mistakes and keeps Vandy close behind the wonderful Ralph Webb. Gators find a way late again.
NS: Florida 20, Vanderbilt 10- Vandy strikes me as the type of team that would get back up and fight back after getting beaten down by Alabama as opposed to playing dead. But they don’t have passing game to serve as a sufficient complement to Ralph Webb, even against what looks to be a bend-and-then-break Florida defense. Gators match their baseball team’s output in their series finale with the Dores on the gridiron- and like the diamond, it’ll be enough.
Georgia @ Tennessee
NWB: Georgia 27, Tennessee 23- Best team the Dawgs have played thus far, at least from a balance standpoint. But if you break it down position by position, UGA is better everywhere, except WR and TE. That and the fact I promised to pick Georgia if they beat Miss State mean Kirby Smart’s team gets to 5-0.
NWB: Georgia 48, Tennessee 19- The Vols are downright awful this year, and Georgia looks frighteningly strong after dismantling Mississippi State. If Tennessee could barely beat Ross Comis and Massachusetts at home, what’s Jacob Fromm and Georgia going to do to them? Yikes. Big beatdown on Rocky Top coming.
Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky
NWB: Kentucky 41, Eastern Michigan 7- Thing about most Kentucky teams is they’d be flat and nearly lose this game after last week’s heartbreak. Mark Stoops has avoided those “letdown” games, mostly, since he showed up in Lexington and it is why they’ll roll tomorrow.
NS: Kentucky 37, EMU 7- Yawn.
Mississippi State @ Auburn
NWB: Auburn 23, Miss State 20- Toughest pick of the week, really. I’d probably go State if the game weren’t on the Plains. Also- here’s a stat for the “Hire Dan Mullen” crowd– Mullen is 2-14 in ranked vs. ranked games while the head coach in Starkville. Yuck City.
NS: Auburn 24, Miss State 20- we still don’t know if Auburn is going to be able to put things together offensively this year, but their defense has looked strong so far this year, particularly against Clemson. Nick Fitzgerald will make some plays, but the Tiger defense will make more.
South Carolina @ Texas A&M
NWB: Texas A & M 27, South Carolina 19- No injury- even Marcell Harris- will hurt a team as much as Deebo Sameul’s loss hurts Coach Boom’s club this year. And after imploding against A & M, Chief John Chavis’s defense has tightened its vice, advancing from 101st in S&P+ after week one to 27th this week. That’s a team that’s getting better.
NS: Texas A&M 38, South Carolina 17- Oh, the poor, misguided fools who actually believe the Gamecocks’ 3-1 start indicates that Will Muschamp has this program headed in the right direction. Here comes your wake-up call. Kevin Sumlin’s Aggies need a big win, and they’re going to get it behind a boisterous crowd that definitely remembers Muschamp both from his 20-17 win at Kyle Field with the Gators five years ago and his three year stint as the defensive coordinator at (ex) archrival Texas.
Troy @ LSU
NWB: LSU 38, Troy 10- Bounce back performance for LSU team that needs momentum heading into next week’s tilt at the Swamp.
NS: LSU 31, Troy 13- Before you lay down money on LSU, consider this: both of Troy’s previous two trips to Red Stick have resulted in hellacious scares for the Tigers. The first of them featured a 24-20 comeback win in 2004 with a game winning TD pass with two minutes to go, and the second one saw LSU fall behind 31-3 in 2008 before scoring 37 unanswered in the final quarter and a half to survive, 40-31. And this LSU team is pretty bad. Still, they’re not that bad… are they?
Mississippi @ Alabama
NWB: Alabama 35, Ole Miss 14- At some point Alabama will get a test from someone in conference. Last year, it was Ole Miss who pushed them to the brink. This year, it will be someone different.
NS: Alabama 48, Ole Miss 10- Not this time, Rebel fans. Tide rolls at home.