Previewing Florida’s 2018 Opponents: Game Nine, Missouri Tigers

Previously previewing:

Game One: Charleston Southern Buccaneers

Game Two: Kentucky Wildcats

Game Three: Colorado State Rams

Game Four: (at) Tennessee Volunteers

Game Five: (at) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Game Six: Louisiana State Tigers

Game Seven: (at) Vanderbilt Commodores

Game Eight: (vs.) Georgia Bulldogs

All time series: Missouri 4, Florida 3

Last meeting: Missouri 45, Florida 16 (2017)

Synopsis: The 2017 Missouri Tigers answered the question of, “how far can you go with a great offense and a horrible defense?” with a 7-6 record and splitting its eight SEC games. But the far more telling stat was that the Tigers lost all six games against opponents that made it to bowl season, and beat all six opponents that did not. But 2018 might result in a worse record for Barry Odom and his squad than Missouri probably deserves to walk away with, with road trips to Alabama, South Carolina and Purdue all on the docket prior to their trip to Gainesville. And that’s not even accounting for what’s certain to be a loss to Georgia to begin SEC play. The Gators get the Tigers in the Swamp in November, so Mizzou’s record could be ugly by this point- but I’d caution you against writing them off before watching them play.

Offensive breakdown: Remember Derek Dooley? Yeah, he’s swapped shades of yellow and is now the offensive coordinator at Mizzou. That means a slower, more methodical approach to the offense than what Josh Heupel oversaw in 2017, which objectively feels like a net negative for Missouri… although that will help keep the Tigers’ defense off the field. But more on that later.

Drew Lock is back at quarterback, and he just might be the best quarterback in the conference. Again, Dooley’s slower offensive approach is almost guaranteed to cut into his productivity- no way in hell he comes close to the 3,964 passing yards he passed for last year- but should help him become even more efficient and cut down on some of the really bad decisions he’s made over the course of his career (namely, three pick sixes and four overall INTs in three games against Florida). If he can cut down on the 13 interceptions he threw last year, he could be a true weapon even without the gaudy passing numbers.

Helping the Tigers out with their new look, slower offense is a solid running back tandem of Damarea Crockett and Larry Rountree III. Losing Ish Witter will hurt, but Crockett (1,543 yards in a season and a half of action) and Rountree III (703 in 2017) should be more than ready for the challenge of filling his shoes. Making things even better for the running game is the fact that Missouri returns all five starters on its offensive line- a unit that finished with the fewest sacks allowed in the conference.

If there’s a question about this offense, it’s the wide receiver corps. J’Mon Moore is a huge loss and nobody will argue otherwise. Emanuel Hall and Johnathan Johnson will have to step into larger roles, while tight end Albert Okwuegbunam and Oregon transfer Alex Ofadile will look to help out as possession receivers.

Offensive Grade: A-. It won’t be the crazy machine gun attack we saw spraying the ball all over the field in 2017, but this is still going to be a strong and more balanced offense that can wear teams down just the same.

Defensive breakdown: Missouri’s defense, as I referenced earlier, was horrible last year, so Dooley coming in and slowing the offense down may not be such a terrible idea. There’s talent, though, so the Tigers may surprise some people and take a big step forward this year.

The line should be fine. Former five star recruit Terry Beckner and Walter Palmer could be an absolutely devastating combination on the interior. Both defensive ends from last year are gone, but coaches are high on both Chris Turner and Trey Williams to step into starting roles. If those ends can make the adjustments, the Tigers could again be among the top of the league in both sacks and tackles for loss.

The linebacker corps has high upside, too. Cale Garrett, Brandon Lee and Terez Hall are all back, but they’re going to need to do more than just tackle people, because those tackle stats have negligible value if you’re tackling running backs fourteen yards past the line of scrimmage. If they can display some added aggression, the Tigers will be OK here.

It’s the secondary that’s cause for concern in CoMo. Missouri surrendered 261 pass yards a game last year, which was 109th out of 130 FBS teams, and most of that secondary is back. The Tigers did dismiss Kaleb Prewett from the team, and they did lose Anthony Sherrils but DeMarkus Acy and Adam Sparks are back at their corner spots. Again, though, those two corners were not all great in 2017, both responsible for giving up multiple big plays over the top, and now the Tigers are going to need to play around with their safety spots as the season goes along to find a combination that works against other schools, not just in practice.

Defensive grade: C. Eh. There’s talent here, but it’s spread out too sporadically across the defense for me to really trust it. It can’t get any worse than it was last year, particularly against the pass, but it’s hard to believe it will get that much better, either.

Key matchup: Turnovers. Missouri blew a lot of games last year before they could really settle into them by turning the ball over. Florida didn’t do so as much, but Feleipe Franks did singlehandedly serve up the finale to FSU on a silver platter with his mistakes, so it’s not like turning the ball over en masse is a foreign concept to this team, either.

Florida key to victory: Beat Missouri over the top. Missouri’s corners aren’t terrible- Florida will certainly face worse over the course of the year- but if Tyrie Cleveland, Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes are anywhere near what they’ve been hyped up to be as a trio, Florida’s quarterback- be it Kyle Track, Emory Jones or even Feleipe Franks- could have a field day.

Missouri key to victory: Get a big day from Drew Lock. Basically, whoever has the better day throwing the football will win the game. The Gators’ cornerback tandem of CJ Henderson and Marco Wilson is much better than Missouri’s of Acy and Sparks, but Lock also has proven to be much better than whoever the Gators trot out at QB. Solid as Henderson and Wilson are, they’re in for a battle defending against Lock’s passes.

Fun fact: Missouri has beaten Florida three times since joining the SEC. In two of those years, the Gators finished with four wins; in the other (2014), they finished with seven. The three years in which Florida beat Missouri since the Tigers joined the conference? Florida finished 11-2 (2012), 10-4 (2015) and 9-4 (2016). So while Missouri is maybe not the best measuring stick for a program like Florida, how the Gators fare against them usually correlates strongly with how the Gators will fare overall.

Summary: Every now and then, there comes a game in which both teams appear to match up evenly on paper, and most pundits predict that when the teams square off, it will be a good game… and that game just turns into a complete and utter bloodbath.

And that’s what I’m projecting will happen in this game. On paper, Florida shouldn’t blow Missouri out of the water- beat them, sure, possibly by multiple touchdowns, but predicting the Gators to administer a complete and utter beatdown to a Missouri team that really isn’t bad when Florida has a laundry list of question marks is what I’m doing for a very simple reason- Mizzou slowing down its offense plays right into Florida’s hand. Sure, the idea is to keep Missouri’s weak defense out of the game as much as possible, but this also gives Florida’s defense the chance to settle in and catch its breath- and if they can force three and outs, then the Tigers’ entire reasoning for slowing the game down reverberates back and explodes in their faces.

So cue this as my upset pick. I didn’t go with a true upset pick this year and, spoiler alert, I won’t do so for the three games left for me to preview, but my score prediction here is going to stand in as my traditional shocker pick. Because again, the Gators shouldn’t blow the Tigers out. Let me make that clear. They will, though- because unlike last year, the Gators will make Lock pay for an early mistake, and buoyed by the home crowd, will boatrace the Tigers before they know what’s happening.

Projection: Florida 45, Missouri 10