Previously previewing:
Game One: Charleston Southern Buccaneers
Game Two: Kentucky Wildcats
Game Three: Colorado State Rams
Game Four: (at) Tennessee Volunteers
Game Five: (at) Mississippi State Bulldogs
Game Six: Louisiana State Tigers
Game Seven: (at) Vanderbilt Commodores
Game Eight: vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Game Nine: Missouri Tigers
Game Ten: South Carolina Gamecocks
Game Eleven: Idaho Vandals no preview. Why bother? Florida 59, Idaho 3
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (2017: 7-6, 3-5 ACC) | |||
Head Coach | Returning starters | 2017 offense | 2017 defense |
Willie Taggart | 8 offense, 4 defense | 352 YPG/27.8 PPG | 337 YPG/21.9 PPG |
1st year | 75%, 42% of stat production | 100th/71st in FBS | 24th/34th in FBS |
All time series: Florida 34, FSU 26, 2 ties
Last meeting: FSU 38, Florida 22 (2017)
Synopsis: Five years of dizzying talent gaps between Florida and FSU. Five straight losses. And if not for a second half implosion by the Seminoles in 2012, it would be eight. The Gators had dominated this rivalry since its inception until Jimbo Fisher’s reign of terror began in 2010, holding a 33-19 overall edge at that point in time, but now they can’t seem to buy a win over the Noles under any circumstances. Four interceptions from James Winston and a 9-0 lead with a first and goal at FSU’s 9? Loss; Treon Harris throws a 94 yard pick six to stake momentum the other way. Will Grier becomes a star in the making and launches Florida into the AP top ten? Loss; Grier gets suspended for PEDs and Treon Harris Treon Harrises the game away. FSU loses its starting QB in game one, stumbles to a 4-6 record and is in grave danger of missing a bowl game? Loss; Florida is even worse and Feleipe Franks hands the game over on a silver platter by losing a fumble and throwing three picks- one of which was taken back for a score and another that would have been if linebacker Matthew Thomas had any semblance of a brain and didn’t fall down at the one yard line. It’s going to take something special to end the streak, and Dan Mullen certainly appears to be a better hire for Florida than Willie Taggart was for FSU as of now, but their respective predecessors’ work has left the Seminoles as the stronger team on paper entering the year.
Offensive breakdown: FSU’s offense was actually pretty solid last year, but a common theme did them in time and again: self inflicted wounds. Between fumbles, interceptions, blown assignments leading to gigantic losses and penalties, the Noles’ mistakes probably cost them about time and a third the points they actually scored. But with a lot of talent back from that team, FSU is reasonably optimistic about its 2018 offense.
Deiondre Francois won the battle with James Blackman for the starting quarterback job, a battle that featured the starting quarterbacks of each of the last two seasons. Taggart likes to roll out his quarterbacks and run them more than Fisher, so opponents can look forward to stopping a true dual threat version of Francois, rather than a good pocket passer who could take off if circumstances dictated it. And yet don’t discount his arm: the man Nole fans affectionately refer to as “Frenchy” threw for 3,350 yards in 2016, along with 20 touchdowns and just seven picks.
Helping Francois out is the always dangerous sophomore Cam Akers, the lone bright spot in a rough 2017 campaign for the Noles. Akers rushed for over 1,000 yards last year as a freshman, and would have boasted even more impressive numbers had he not been shut down by Florida (34 yards on 14 carries) and Alabama (30 on 10). But there’s no denying his explosive power as a runner, the same way there’s no denying Jacques Patrick’s ability as a backup. While Patrick has been a bit underwhelming for a five star recruit (1,412 yards in three years), he presents a devastating change of pace option in short yardage and goal line situations. For depth, FSU is also high about third stringer Amir Rasul. If the offensive line takes the step forward FSU seems to be confident that it will take, the Noles could have a tremendous ground game.
The big question is the receiving game. There’s Nyqwan Murray, but behind him there’s virtually zero proven depth. Keith Gavin and George Campbell have flashed their potential, but very sporadically and simply not frequently enough to be objectively trusted. DJ Matthews stands to gain the most from new offensive coordinator Walt Bell’s system as a slot receiver, but Gavin and George remain the key.
Offensive Grade: B-. FSU’s offense is a complete unknown this year because it so heavily hinges on the development of their wide receivers. Failure to prove that it can consistently beat opponents over the top will result in opponents stuffing the box and selling out to defend against the one true threat they can know can beat them- Akers. But Francois is a good enough quarterback to keep the offense above C level (pun simultaneously intended and not intended).
Defensive breakdown: Talent isn’t the question for this defense. Jimbo Fisher recruited well enough to leave Taggart with a bright future on this side of the ball. But like South Carolina, the Seminoles are going to be relying awfully heavily on new talent.
The defensive line could be absolutely vicious. Brian Burns, Josh Kaindoh and Janarius Robinson provide a potentially truculent trio of defensive ends, and Marvin Wilson will look to step up and become the terrifying interior lineman he was recruited to be. DeMarcus Christmas returns for his senior year on the inside, too, and he brings 13.5 TFL’s worth of experience with him. So, good luck blocking these guys.
The Seminoles’ linebackers could be good, but are much more of an unknown. There’s some experience there, with guys like Adonis Thomas, Dontavious Jackson, Leonard Warner and Emmett Rice being counted on, but a general lack of production out of that group in recent years leaves the middle level of the FSU defense a question mark at best. FSU has high hopes for freshman Amari Gainer, Jaiden Woodbey (who is my pick to start at a hybrid LB/DB role) and DeCalon Brooks, but how quickly can you expect a trio of rookies to play like All-Americans? It’s definitely the weakest link of this defense, and against teams that run the ball very well, the Noles could struggle.
FSU’s secondary, though, is going to be frightening. Stanford Samuels III is a beast, as is youngster Asante Samuels, Jr. (yes, the son of the former NFL corner). This defensive backfield is littered with guys who have at least some experience- some good, some bad- with guys like Kyle Myers, AJ Westbrook, AJ Lytton, and Hamsah Nasarildeen, and new defensive coordinator Harlon Barnett is going to have a good time disguising his coverages with the overall speed and athleticism on this unit.
Defensive grade: B+. This defense has the potential to be the best in the country. In 2019. Which is not this year. They should still be among the top third in the country in most statistical categories in 2018, but expect some growing pains for a unit with as many fresh faces as this one.
Key matchup: QB Battle. FSU has a known commodity at quarterback. Florida does not. But this is as of August 31. This could very well change, or even flip pending potential injuries, within three months. Whoever gets better quarterback play wins this game.
Florida key: win the trenches. The Seminoles have a strong defensive line, and Florida should have a strong offensive line. But they’d better, because the Gators are in for a long day if they don’t. Florida stands no chance whatsoever if they cannot block for Feleipe Franks or Kyle Trask, or open some holes for Jordan Scarlett, Malik Davis and LaMical Perine to run through.
FSU key: don’t get gashed by the run. The Seminoles’ linebackers are by far the weakest unit on the entire roster. If they can hold their own and not get embarrassed on the ground, they’re in great shape. But that’s a big if.
Fun fact: OK, so this is admittedly part urban legend and part fact- I’ll clarify which is which. The prototype of the drink that we know today as Gatorade was actually first conceived by FSU team doctor R.A. Johnson in 1962. Dubbed “Seminole Firewater,” Johnson mixed lemon-lime flavoring and sugar with electrolytes to prevent cramping (based on their fanbase’s collective behavior, I’m guessing that it didn’t work, if you know what I mean). Two years later, UF sports doctors went to Tallahassee for a seminar on keeping athletes hydrated and well-nourished, at which they discovered the formula.Now, here comes the unverified part: legend has it that nine days later, a Gator engineering student subsequently snuck into the FSU laboratory at four in the morning, absconded with the formula, and returned to Gainesville with it. Yes, that’s against the law, and no, I’m not proud of that- if it’s true. Which I’m very clearly stating may not be the case, but hey, everybody loves an old urban legend, right? What we know for a fact is that a team of UF doctors led by Robert Cade somehow got their hands on the formula, tinkered with it to make it sweeter and even stronger, and named it Gatorade. And that’s why many FSU fans and staff detest the brand as a whole and drink Powerade out of spite.
Summary: I’d love to believe that this is the year that Florida ends FSU’s historic five game winning streak. It is, after all, the longest streak the Noles have ever had over the Gators, and the thought of it stretching even longer has me sick. And indeed, some of the ingredients for this to happen are in place: Florida has the more proven head coach, and a great running game that matches up quite favorably with FSU’s linebacker group.
But not all of the pieces are there; in fact, many of the matchups lean the other way. And for me to pick Florida to beat FSU with my head and not my heart, they have to all be there. Anything short of that, and a 20+ point game day spread, and I simply will not pick Florida to beat FSU again at any point in the calendar year until it happens. You want a little deeper analysis? Sure: I’m very optimistic about Florida’s wide receiver corps, running backs and offensive line, but I still have yet to see proof- read that word again, proof, not hype– that the Gators have a dependable quarterback that’s capable of winning a football game with his play as opposed to letting his teammates carry him. For Florida to win, the quarterback cannot be hidden; he will have to play his very best, whether that’s Kyle Track, Emory Jones, or Feleipe Franks.
So while I believe in my heart of hearts that the Gators made the better long term hire, and that Dan Mullen will eventually get Florida back on top in the state, FSU still has the better overall roster and thus cannot be projected to lose to the Gators in an offseason preview until it actually happens. The talent gap is shrinking simply by Nick Savage bringing the Gator players closer to their potentials, but it’s still big enough for FSU to appear to be stronger heading into the season. And so for at least one more year, I’ll grit my teeth and say this monkey will continue to adorn Florida’s back, which coupled with losses to Mississippi State and Georgia will put Florida at 9-3 on the year. And I think we’d all take that.
Projection: Florida State 34, Florida 27